Tourism report: what slowdown?

Hawaii tourism will probably slow this year -- the official forecast this week from the state was for slightly fewer visitors but a new record high in visitor spending -- but it most assuredly did not slow in January. The wrap-up report on January tourism from the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism said there were more visitors, more visitor days, and more visitor spending, than in the same month last year. Roughly 600,000 visitors spent roughly $1.1 billion. Japanese arrivals fell 5% from year-before levels but Japanese honeymoon traffic actually increased. California arrivals eased but traffic from Portland, Seattle and Vancouver (where the Canadians fly from) all rose in double digit percentages. We also got more visitors from foreign countries other than Japan and Canada, and from east of the Rockies. This is not to say we might not yet experience a serious slowdown. We get more Californians than any other brand of visitor, and the California economy is tanking. But most of our California visitors come from the prosperous coastal cities of the Golden State, while most of the state's economic problems come from the central agricultural part of the state including such cities as Fresno, Merced and El Centro. What I'm trying to say is that there has not been any mainland economic development to impel mainlanders to cancel plans for a Hawaii vacation. We will begin to lose domestic visitor traffic if and only if mainlanders whose personal finances are strong begin to FEEL less prosperous because of everything they watch on CNBC. Two-thirds of U.S. economic activity is consumer spending, much of it discretionary, so the mood of consumers isn't merely a touchy-feely thing, it's a concrete economic indicator with measurable effects on business.